So Obama has won Hawaii and Wisconsin as predicted, and come the end of the counting he should be at least 150 delegates ahead of Clinton leading in to the next big day of primaries. This is almost certainly the end of the road for his streak, as impressive as it's been, and I feel it's done some big damage to Clinton's campaign which are now seeing slumps in the polls in even the states thought to be safely big wins for her. Ultimately though the next two months are going to be about Clinton and her regaining the ground on the upstart. Unfortunately for Clinton I think that will ultimately play in to his underdog status that he enjoys come May.

If Hillary is playing a big state strategy then she really needs to win something around 150 delegates more than Obama by the end of Pennsylvania as it stands. If she doesn't then she's looking at Obama taking a hit on his momentum but then getting it back again when he leap frogs her at North Carolina a month later. This means she needs to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by 30 points on average each, or 65%-35%, yet both Ohio and Texas have seen Clinton slump in the polls to a sub-10 point lead.

This is going to be a lot tougher for Clinton than I think some people believe *cough*CentreRight*cough* and I personally wonder whether or not two not too convincing wins in Ohio and Texas might further dent her chances by lessening her share in Pennsylvania. Vermont and Rhode Island look like they'll be wins that Hillary can claim she's stopped the run Obama's having, but in all honesty from what polls are available these smaller final states are pretty impossible to gauge since Super Tuesday. My personal feeling is that Obama will have a tendancy of winning the smaller states as he's always done, with Hillary managing to keep close in enough and perhaps win a few to make anything but the results in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania little more than an after-thought.

This one is going all the way to the end, the question is not whether Obama will win the peoples vote because it's pretty clear he is and will, it's now whether he'll lose to a dirty game played by the democratic party or not.