About Lee: Former students' union president and intermitent blogger since the turn of the century, who's aim is to promote objective thinking and a break from partisan politics when discussing the issues of the day. Obama thunders on...
Wed 13th Feb 2008 – (0 Comments)
Just a quick one, but I wanted to blow my own trumpet and brag about how how right I was about where the Democratic race is going. I'm now more sure than before that the next two states of any meaning will also go to Obama with polls on the rise for him. After that is Texas and Ohio. Quite simply put, Hillary has to win both of these states by about 70% to 30% to stay in the race. Even winning by that margin will likely not put her back in the lead with pledged delegates, though perhaps for overall delegates, but it could stay her execution enough to be able to fight Pennsylvania which is the last big state. In short she needs roughly 100 delegates from these two states just to stay on the pace and give her campaign a boost, and then an emphatic victory in Pennsylvania. Even then it may not be enough.
If Obama does as well in Texas as people are rumouring, or if he cuts in to what is a significant margin of support for Clinton in Ohio, then I have to concur with others around the web that are suggesting that the first primaries of March could be Clinton's curtain call.
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So what the hell is going on, Labour are slumping in the polls and yet those most naturally in their shadow able to take their place (the Lib Dems) are failing to capitalise in the polls. And even though the Tories are enjoying high times so much they must think it's the 80's all over again (in more ways than one) they have failed to deliver one serious or credible attack against the government that would show them to be the true heir's to the throne. So to speak. Anyway, on with this weeks Politalks. NSFW as usual, transcript can be found if you go through to read more!
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