How much longer can the anti-Obama sentiment last?
Sun 10th Feb 2008 – (0 Comments)
It is clear that after tonight Barack Obama will be making strides in to the lead with pledged candidate numbers. He is currently projected to win the Washington and Nebraska caucuses, and exit polls suggest an easy victory in Louisiana is on the way. I was very disappointed with just how many people have tried to suggest that Hillary Clinton is still the person to beat after Super Tuesday, it was very clearly a draw on the night however it is the fact that Obama had come from such a huge margin behind the favourite Clinton that made him able to claim the biggest moral victory. How much longer will those that clearly don't want an Obama victory be able to deny where the feeling of the US, and the world, is going?
You see, the key thing to watch at the minute is how the language is going to change in the next few weeks. A win in Louisiana will prove that Obama wins more of the female vote than Clinton, that he wins more of the white vote than Clinton wins of the African American vote, and that as the campaign heads towards the next big test (Texas) his sway with evangelical and devout Christians will have to be a major source of concern for the Clinton camp.
It seems as though too much stock has been put on Texas because of the numbers and not enough on the change of mood. It wasn't that long ago that people generally thought Clinton should and would win, now the mood is reversing. Given that, and the momentums involved in this race, we have to take a look at the path leading up to March and Texas.
Firstly he will emphatically win tonight, three states look like they will all be won with a good margin, and as such the media will have no choice but to hail him as the one that comes out victorious in the aftermath of Super Tuesday. Clinton will then have little more to be happy about when the Maine caucus happens tomorrow and that off the bounce of tonight's result Obama takes another win...his strength in caucuses unquestionable right now. After this weekend there are then 5 more states on the road to Texas.
One of these is a caucus in Hawaii, fairly minor but probably should go to Obama. Looking then at the rest of the states, The District of Columbia will probably follow the Washington result (no polling data) while Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin could be more hotly contested. Saying that, however, Obama is clear favourite in two of those states, and in Wisconsin he is starting to eat in to Clinton's lead. All in all, with the boost that comes from this weekend it is highly likely he'll also come out as the front runner leading in to Ohio and Texas in terms of delegate numbers.
This is made all the more important when you realise that while Clinton is languishing in a points battle with McCain in their national favour, Obama is streaking up and over the ageing Republican would-be-nominee. It would be rash to assume this will stay the same for the next month, McCain should get a big boost when he is eventually "crowned" by his party...but surely Democrats are beginning to realise that when that day comes Clinton is going to be left coughing in his dust as he runs to catch up with the more inspirational Obama?
It was irresponsible of the media to downplay Obama's achievement on Super Tuesday, but as many of us analysing the results and the polls could see, these weeks after were always going to be good news for him. Texas and Ohio are big states that he needs to win, or at least come very close to Clinton, if he wants to be the nominee, and the lack of a real Clinton win since super Tuesday will help him greatly, but he needs to probably play smart and leave Ohio go somewhat in the aim of putting his hefty resources in to a change of opinion of the people of Texas.
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About Lee: Former students' union president and intermitent blogger since the turn of the century, who's aim is to promote objective thinking and a break from partisan politics when discussing the issues of the day. 


