I am, when all is said and done, a bit of a nerd when it comes to analysing things and trying to predict outcomes. While I truly believe that nationally the UK blog scene should be concentrating on prevailing UK political issues I just can't come to drop this kind of opportunity to geek out. So without further ado, with New Hampshire exit poll results at the ready, I want to look in to who I believe is going to win depending on a few key scenario differences at the next stage of the race towards becoming the democratic candidate for president. Just to note, I would write about the Republicans too but in all honesty that group of people just really irk me rather than make me passionate about politics, so it is probably best I keep avoiding analysing them!

Over in the Observer a very good piece has been written about the build up to the next state. The race is moving South, and so while the middle of America has now been initially weighed up and also the North, the South is yet to make its views known. Given the propensity for religion the more south you go in the US, as well as the well known history about race relations in the south vs the north, it is clear that if anywhere was going to differ from what we've seen already it would be South Carolina that would start to show those differences. Is the race issue going to be where the battle is won and lost? Will religious rhetoric come out in more force?

The key to determining a likely winner is to determine what the population will be like. With a higher black population this would seem to be a potential advantage to Obama, and with Hillary screwing up largely by belittling Martin Luther Kings efforts it would certainly seem to have every possibility of going his way. In fact, before Clinton did that it might be said that the state was one of the southern states that wanted to be progressive, to vote on issues not race. Any aspect of that may now truly have been reversed by Clinton's insensitivity. We also know that religion, particularly a distaste of Islam, is much bigger here. I wouldn't suggest anyone would play dirty, but Obama is already losing votes because people believe he is a Muslim, and any pushes to paint him that way will unfortunately cost him.

But what of other demographics? In reality South Carolina may be more religious, and they are almost certainly more poor and more likely to be unemployed. Unfortunately for Obama they are also less well educated. Here Clinton takes back a lot of ground as being more popular with the less wealthy, the moderately religious, the unemployed and the less well educated. Indeed if these types of people come out voting then Clinton needs only to hope that they firstly forget her statement about Martin Luther King and that they also turn out in greater numbers than the younger wealthier populace. Obama ultimately is only likely to record good wins over Clinton in South Carolina if the democrat population are much more devout than in New Hampshire, potentially not too tall an order.

What is interesting over all of this then, the conditions ripe for a Clinton victory, is Obama is already way ahead in the polls in South Carolina, whereas he usually starts behind, and Clinton is still dropping despite her win. This has to be a clear sign of the fact that his momentum must still be enough compared to his rivals to keep him viable to the public. But what of the John Edwards effect? If you remember from my other blog post I said that Edwards was a clear problem for Clinton if he was doing well. Polls currently put Edwards on at 15% which is more of a problem for Obama. Edwards should find his time in he next battle easier because of his ties to the state, and indeed the polls seem to have stopped sinking and started rising again for him perhaps bouyed by a second place in Iowa when he was "meant" to come third. If he can run a strong campaign and gain just another 5-8 points of the share from South Carolina voters I would be very surprised to see a Clinton win and wouldn't be shocked if she came third again. We will have to see what polls say at the time but Edwards polling well could be the main factor in who wins the state.

If Edwards can't make the grade though then the story really falls back on to what I analysed earlier, the demographics of the state. If Edwards' position remains the same then everything points towards Clinton being hard to beat again as long as she can make some of her unfortunate comments go away. All of the right types of voters are here for her to utilise and a new sense of mobility for her team after New Hampshire may just be able to find them.

Who do I believe will win it though? I think that Clinton's comments are being taken too deep to go away, and I think that Obama has already started changing his tact and vocabulary to resonate with black Americans in the south. I believe Clinton has done too much damage to herself and that Edwards will gain too much ground, splitting the popular vote away from her and towards him. I think that Edwards having a lack of momentum will probably mean he only manages a close third again this time under very different circumstances from 2004 when he won. Edwards will still be in the race in terms of delegates but will be bailing water from a sinking ship, while Clinton will probably be able to shrug off the defeat as being down to race given the way the media is reporting.